We believe the most asymmetric investment opportunities come from a mismatch between what the real world is telling you and what Wall Street is pricing in.
Institutional analysts are smart. They build sophisticated models, run regressions, and have access to management teams. But they're also slow. They're consensus-driven. And they spend most of their time staring at spreadsheets instead of observing how the world is actually changing around them.
Meanwhile, everyday people notice things first. A new product blowing up on TikTok. A restaurant chain that suddenly has a 90-minute wait in three different cities. A generational shift in how people spend money, consume media, or think about health. These signals — social, cultural, behavioral — often precede Wall Street's "discovery" by months or even years.
But noticing a trend isn't enough. For every viral product that becomes a billion-dollar business, a hundred others flame out. That's where discipline comes in.
We pair the observational edge of social trend-spotting with the rigor of Warren Buffett-style fundamental analysis. Every trend gets stress-tested: Does the business have a moat? Is there a margin of safety? Does the balance sheet support growth? Would we buy the entire company at this price?
If the social signal is strong and the fundamentals confirm it, we have a thesis. If either side fails, we walk away.
Every thesis we publish follows a five-step process:
What social or cultural trend are we seeing? This is always the starting point — never a stock screener, never an earnings report. We look at Google Trends, social media buzz, app store rankings, store visits, and shifts in consumer behavior. The best observations come from paying attention to how real people live, spend, and talk.
How does this trend translate into revenue for a specific company? Not every trend is investable. We map the observation to a business that's positioned to capture it — and we articulate why this company, specifically, will benefit more than the market expects.
Do the fundamentals support the thesis? This is the Buffett layer. We estimate intrinsic value, evaluate the economic moat, examine the balance sheet, and calculate the margin of safety. A hot trend attached to a garbage balance sheet is still a bad investment. We need both the signal and the substance.
What's the risk/reward? What's our conviction level? We rate every thesis on a 1–5 conviction scale, define entry and exit points, and size positions according to the strength of the evidence. High conviction and wide margin of safety means we lean in. Uncertain? We keep it small or stay on the watchlist.
Is the thesis playing out? We monitor whether the social trend is accelerating or fading, whether the fundamentals are holding, and whether new information changes the picture. Theses get updated publicly — including when we're wrong.
This site is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The authors may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own research. Past performance does not indicate future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal.
We're sharing our research process and thinking — not telling you what to do with your money. Use this as one input among many. Think for yourself. And never invest more than you can afford to lose.